Primaries are beingon Tuesday, with the November matchups in 78 congressional seats being determined – a huge indicator of how the control of the House will go in November.
Ten of these seats are in California, where results will likely not come on Tuesday night since the state conducts its elections by mail. The state also advances the top two vote getters to run in November, meaning some match ups could result in two Democrats facing off or two Republicans.
One of the California Republicans facing a primary challenge is Rep. David Valadao, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump. Two Republicans are challenging Valadao in the primary, former city Councilman Chris Mathys and Education Board Trustee Adam Medeiros, but Trump has not endorsed either of them.
State Assemblyman Rudy Salas is expected to be the Democratic nominee against Valadao, if he makes it,attempting to flip back a seat that was held by a Democrat until 2020.
Democratic Reps. Katie Porter, Josh Harder and Mike Levin are on the target list for national Republicans and are waiting to see who their challenger this November will be. Of the three, Levin may face the toughest race, since his district leans Democratic by only two points, according to data from Dave’s Redistricting App.
There are two statewide races happening in California, including primary challenges against Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sen. Alex Padilla, who was appointed to finish out Vice President Kamala Harris’ term. But there are also two high-profile local elections happening in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is term-limited, and Rep. Karen Bass and real estate developer Rick Caruso leading the contenders. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll from late May showed Bass at 38% and Caruso at 32%, but if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, the top two contenders will go to a runoff in November.
In San Francisco, progressive District Attorney Chesa Boudin faces a recall vote, with the few polls on the race suggesting he is in danger of losing his seat.
Meanwhile in South Dakota, Republican Gov. Kristi Noem, one of the party’s rising stars, is facing a primary challenge from former South Dakota House Speaker Steve Haugaard. who has claimed Noem isn’t conservative enough despite Trump backing her in the race. Longtime Sen. John Thune, seeking his fourth term, also has a number of primary challengers, including National Guard veteran Bruce Whalen and entrepreneur Mark Mowry. Both Thune and Noem are expected to win Tuesday.
In Iowa, several Democrats are vying to take on Sen. Chuck Grassley in November. Grassley, who is 88, has served in the Senate since 1981, and whoever faces him in November has long odds given that he won his last election by 24 points. Grassley also has to fend off a primary challenge on Tuesday from Iowa state Senator Jim Carlin.
Republicans have set their sights on Democratic New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Television meteorologist Mark Ronchetti, state Rep. Rebecca Dow, Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block, veteran Greg Zanetti and executive director of New Mexico Right to Life Ethel Maharg are among the Republicans vying to take on Lujan Grisham.
Lujan Grisham is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
As the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol prepares for public hearings this month, Democratic select committee chair Rep. Bennie Thompson faces a primary challenge from Jerry Kerner on the right.