Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction, odds, line, spread, start time: 2023 NFL playoff picks from model that’s 16-6

The Kansas City Chiefs will attempt to post their sixth consecutive victory when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday in the Divisional Round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. AFC West-champion Kansas City (14-3) ended the regular season with its second five-game winning streak, the first of which included a 27-17 home triumph over Jacksonville in Week 10. The Jaguars also finished the season with a five-game run that helped them capture the AFC South crown and overcame a 27-point, first-half deficit to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30 in their wild-card matchup in the 2023 NFL playoff bracket.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a nine-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Jaguars odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 52.5. Before locking in any Jaguars vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the Divisional Round of the 2023 NFL playoffs on an incredible 162-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 16-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of this season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Saturday and just locked in its picks and NFL playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Jaguars vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars spread: Kansas City -9
  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars over/under: 52.5 points 
  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars money line: Kansas City -550, Jacksonville +400
  • KC: Chiefs are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine home games
  • JAX: Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Kansas City 
  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why the Chiefs can cover

Patrick Mahomes has settled for nothing less than the AFC Championship Game since becoming Kansas City’s starting quarterback in 2018. The 27-year-old has guided the team to a 5-0 record in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs, averaging 327.2 passing yards while throwing 14 touchdowns and just one interception. Mahomes has the most TD tosses in the postseason by anyone in their 20s (28) and the highest passer rating in the playoffs (105.7) in NFL history.

Mahomes led the league with 41 scoring passes this season, connecting for touchdowns with 11 different players. Tight end Travis Kelce was the most frequent recipient, making a career-high 12 TD catches to rank second in the league, while running back Jerick McKinnon had nine, including one in each of his last six games. See which team to pick here.

Why the Jaguars can cover

Jacksonville has performed well on the road following a miserable stretch during which it lost 22 of 23 away games. Since losing at Kansas City in Week 10 to fall to 1-5 away from home this season, the Jaguars have won three straight on the road, a feat they last accomplished in 2017. The club’s defense has played a big role in the turnaround, allowing just a field goal in each of its last two away contests.

The Jaguars likely won’t be able to shut down the Chiefs, whose lowest total this season was 17 points, so Trevor Lawrence and the offense will need to be at the top of their game. The 23-year-old quarterback’s playoff career got off to a horrid start after he threw four interceptions in the first half against the Chargers, but he went on to throw four touchdown passes while orchestrating the third-largest comeback win in NFL playoff history. Lawrence has yet to lose on a Saturday as a starting quarterback, winning all 37 outings in high school (three), college (32) and the NFL (two). See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under the point total, calling for 50 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Jaguars vs. Chiefs in the 2023 NFL playoffs? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Jaguars spread to be all over on Saturday, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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